Donald Trump’s Chances of Beating Kamala Harris in Michigan: Recent Polls

Donald Trump is marginally trailing Kamala Harris in Michigan, although polls suggest the race in the key swing state is too close to call.
Trump will be heading to Michigan on Tuesday to hold a town hall meeting in Flint in what will be the former president’s first campaign event since the assassination attempt against him at his golf course in West Palm Beach, Florida on Sunday.
Harris will also be traveling to Michigan on her campaign trail this week, taking part in a live streamed event alongside Oprah Winfrey on Thursday night.
Michigan is one of several battleground states which may ultimately decide who wins November’s general election. The Wolverine State and its 10 Electoral College votes could prove vital to either candidate in November.
If Trump flips Michigan, pollster Nate Silver’s analysis suggests the Republican will have a 95 percent chance of winning the election overall, reported the New York Post.
If Harris wins Michigan and two other so-called “blue wall” battleground states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the vice president will have enough Electoral College votes to be declared the winner, barring any shock results elsewhere.
According to three separate polling aggregator’s averages, Harris is currently just ahead of Trump in Michigan.
With less than two months to go until the election, Real Clear Politics has Harris 0.7 points ahead of Trump in Michigan [48.3 percent to 47.6].
Polling website 538, formerly FiveThirtyEight, gives Harris a larger average lead of 1.7 points [47.8 percent to 46.1].
Silver, who founded 538 and now uses a similar forecast model, currently has Harris 1.2 points ahead of Trump in Michigan [48.1 percent to 46.9].
When broken down, recent individual polls suggest that Harris is the slight favorite in Michigan in a race which could still go either way.
On September 12, an InsiderAdvanatge poll of 800 registered voters showed Trump with a 1-point lead over Harris in Michigan [49 percent to 48]. The results have a margin of error or plus or minus 3.7 percent.
“As is the case in most battleground states, the race is extremely close,” InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery said in a statement.
“While there remains some enthusiasm gap in many of these states, with an advantage to Democrats, Michigan has no gap whatsoever. The candidates are basically tied in every age demographic, with Trump slightly ahead among independents.”
On September 11, a Mitchell Research and Communications survey of 580 registered voters showed Harris with a 47 percent to 46 percent lead over Trump with a full field of presidential candidates including independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [2 percent].
Harris and Trump are tied on 48 percent in a direct head-to-head, with both results within the margin of error of 4.06 percent.
A Redfield & Wilton Strategies swing states survey published September 10 showed Harris with a larger lead of 3-points over Trump among 556 likely voters in Michigan.
Elsewhere, a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted between September 3-8 showed Trump trailing Harris by 1-point in Michigan [50 percent to 49].
The results from the survey of 1,086 registered voters in Michigan is again within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Trump’s and Harris’ campaign teams have been contacted for comment via email.